Attack Forecast and Prediction
Cyber-security has emerged as one of the most pressing issues for society with actors trying to use offensive capabilities and those who try to leverage on defensive capabilities to secure their assets or knowledge. However, in cyber-space attackers oftentimes have a significant first mover advantage leading to a dynamic cat and mouse game with defenders. Cyber Treat Intelligence (CTI) on past attacks bears potentials that can be used by means of predictive analytics to minimise the attackers first mover advantage. Yet, attack prediction is not an established means and automation levels are low. Within this work, we present Attack Forecast and Prediction (AFP) which is based on MITRE Adversarial Tactics, Techniques and Common Knowledge (ATT&CK). AFP consists of four modules representing different analytical procedures which are clustering, link prediction, time series analysis, and genetic algorithms. AFP identifies trends in the usage of attack techniques and crafts forecasts and predictions on future malware and the attack techniques used. We rely on time sorting to generate subgraphs of MITRE ATT&CK and evaluate the accuracy of predictions generated by AFP based on these.
Tue 16 NovDisplayed time zone: Brussels, Copenhagen, Madrid, Paris change
13:30 - 15:00 | Cyber Threat IntelligenceCall for Papers at Grand Auditorium Chair(s): Gurvan LE GUERNIC DGA MI & Université de Rennes 1 | ||
13:30 30mTalk | La Threat Intelligence comme vecteur d’automatisation de la Cyberdéfense Call for Papers Media Attached File Attached | ||
14:00 20mTalk | Automatisation de l'analyse de binaires : de la collecte source ouverte à la Threat Intel Call for Papers Media Attached | ||
14:20 20mTalk | Automated Risk Analysis of a Vulnerability Disclosure Using Active Learning Call for Papers Media Attached | ||
14:40 20mTalk | Attack Forecast and Prediction Call for Papers Florian Kaiser Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Tobias Budig Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Elisabeth Goebel Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Tessa Fischer Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Jurek Muff Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Marcus Wiens Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Frank Schultmann Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Media Attached |