Much more than a prediction: Expert-based software effort estimation as a behavioral act
Traditionally, Software Effort Estimation (SEE) has been portrayed as a technical prediction task, for which we seek accuracy through improved estimation methods and a thorough consideration of effort predictors. In this article, our objective to make explicit the perspective of SEE as a behavioral act, bringing attention to the fact that human biases and noise are relevant components in estimation errors, acknowledging that SEE is more than a prediction task. We employed a thematic analysis of factors affecting expert judgment software estimates to satisfy this objective. We show that estimators do not necessarily behave entirely rationally given the information they have as input for estimation. The reception of estimation requests, the communication of software estimates, and their use also impact the estimation values — something unexpected if estimators were solely focused on SEE as a prediction task. Based on this, we also matched SEE interventions to behavioral ones from Behavioral Economics showing that, although we are already adopting behavioral insights to improve our estimation practices, there are still gaps to build upon. Furthermore, we assessed the strength of evidence for each of our review findings to derive recommendations for practitioners on the SEE interventions they can confidently adopt to improve their estimation processes. Moreover, in assessing the strength of evidence, we adopted the GRADE-CERQual (Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research) approach. It enabled us to point concrete research paths to strengthen the existing evidence about SEE interventions based on the dimensions of the GRADE-CERQual evaluation scheme.
Thu 24 OctDisplayed time zone: Brussels, Copenhagen, Madrid, Paris change
16:00 - 17:30 | Software measurement and estimationsESEM Technical Papers / ESEM IGC / ESEM Journal-First Papers / ESEM Emerging Results, Vision and Reflection Papers Track at Multimedia (B3 Building - Hall) Chair(s): Beatriz Bernárdez Universidad de Sevilla | ||
16:00 20mFull-paper | Enhancing Change Impact Prediction by Integrating Evolutionary Coupling with Software Change Relationships ESEM Technical Papers Daihong Zhou School of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Shanghai Institute of Technology, Jiyue Zhang School of Computer Science, Fudan University, Ping Yu Fudan University, China, Wunan Guo School of Optical-Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology | ||
16:20 20mFull-paper | M-score: An Empirically Derived Software Modularity Metric ESEM Technical Papers Ernst Pisch Drexel University, Yuanfang Cai Drexel University, Rick Kazman , Jason Lefever Drexel University, Hongzhou Fang Drexel University | ||
16:40 15mVision and Emerging Results | Towards Automated Continuous Security Compliance ESEM Emerging Results, Vision and Reflection Papers Track Florian Angermeir fortiss, Jannik Fischbach Netlight GmbH / fortiss GmbH, Fabiola Moyon Siemens AG, Munich, Germany, Daniel Mendez Blekinge Institute of Technology and fortiss Pre-print | ||
17:00 15mJournal Early-Feedback | Much more than a prediction: Expert-based software effort estimation as a behavioral act ESEM Journal-First Papers Patrícia G. F. Matsubara Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), Igor Steinmacher Northern Arizona University, Bruno Gadelha UFAM, Tayana Conte Universidade Federal do Amazonas DOI | ||
17:15 15mIndustry talk | On the Accuracy of Effort Estimations based on COSMIC Functional Size Measurement: A Case Study ESEM IGC Ersin Ersoy Paycell, Selami Bagriyanik Singularity Software Technologies; Istanbul Topkapi University, Hasan Sozer Ozyegin University |