A recurring problem in software development is incorrect decision making on the techniques, methods and tools to be used. Mostly, these decisions are based on developers’ perceptions about them. A factor influencing people’s perceptions is past experience, but it is not the only one. In this research, we aim to discover how well the perceptions of the defect detection effectiveness of different techniques match their real effectiveness in the absence of prior experience. To do this, we conduct an empirical study plus a replication. During the original study, we conduct a controlled experiment with students applying two testing techniques and a code review technique. At the end of the experiment, they take a survey to find out which technique they perceive to be most effective. The results show that participants’ perceptions are wrong and that this mismatch is costly in terms of quality. In order to gain further insight into the results, we replicate the controlled experiment and extend the survey to include questions about participants’ opinions on the techniques and programs. The results of the replicated study confirm the findings of the original study and suggest that participants’ perceptions might be based not on their opinions about complexity or preferences for techniques but on how well they think that they have applied the techniques.